By Andy Leyland, Head of Forecasting & Consultancy
In commodities analysis there is a long-held view that when a market enters into oversupply the price will fall toward the 90th centile of the cost curve. The logic being that this will prevent new supply from entering the market, force out high cost supply and lead to a market rebalancing. On the surface it appears a sensible argument, and is - with some notable exceptions - supported by decades worth of data from the copper, gold and iron ore markets.
This is also the logic that has seen a number of overly . . .
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